Volta Redonda vs. Avaí: When Data Tells the Story of a 1-1 Draw

The Teams Behind the Numbers

Volta Redonda FC, founded in 1976 in Rio de Janeiro, has become synonymous with nurturing young Brazilian talent. Their most notable achievement? Winning the Campeonato Carioca Série B1 in 2019. This season, they’ve been hovering around mid-table with a mixed bag of results – flashes of brilliance overshadowed by defensive inconsistencies.

Avaí FC, hailing from Florianópolis since 1923, boasts a richer trophy cabinet including multiple Catarinense State Championships. Currently fighting for promotion back to Serie A, their campaign has been defined by gritty away performances – like this hard-fought point at Estádio Raulino de Oliveira.

Match Highlights Through a Data Lens

The 1-1 scoreline (completed at 00:26 AM local time after 96 intense minutes) perfectly encapsulates both teams’ seasons:

• xG Timeline: Volta Redonda edged it 1.4 to 1.2, but Avaí’s goalkeeper made 3 crucial saves
• Possession Paradox: The home side dominated 58% possession but completed fewer final third passes (42 vs. Avaí’s 39)
• Disciplinary Woes: 5 yellow cards showed this wasn’t for the faint-hearted

Why This Draw Feels Like Two Points Dropped

My predictive model gave Volta Redonda a 47% win probability pre-match based on:

1. Home advantage (+12% historical boost)
2. Recent form (W2 D1 L2 last 5)
3. Avaí’s shaky away defense (conceding 1.8 goals/game on road)

Yet their inability to convert dominance into goals continues plaguing them – now just 1 win in 4 matches.

What’s Next?

For Volta Redonda: Must improve chance conversion (currently league-worst 8%) before facing league leaders Botafogo-SP next week.

For Avaí: This away point could prove vital in their promotion push – my model still gives them 63% chance of top-4 finish.

Fun fact for collectors: This was the third consecutive H2H draw between these sides - perhaps we should start calling it ‘The Rubber Band Derby’ given how these teams keep snapping back to parity.

Want more data-driven insights? My Patreon breaks down every Serie B match with interactive viz tools.