Brazilian Serie B Round 12: Where Defense Outshone Attack

The Curious Case of Goalless Stalemates
This round reminded me why I keep antacids handy when analyzing Brazilian football. Three matches ended 0-0 - statistically improbable given Serie B’s average of 2.1 goals per game. The most eyebrow-raising was Avai’s second consecutive goalless draw against Paysandu (June 25), following their 1-1 result with Volta Redonda. My data models suggest fatigue from their Copa do Brasil run might be affecting finishing precision.

Late Drama Specialists
Three matches saw goals after the 85th minute - including Amazonas FC’s 2-1 comeback against Vila Nova (June 22). Their xG of just 0.8 for that match suggests either miraculous efficiency or defensive collapse. As my old professor would say: “In Brazil, the final whistle is merely a suggestion.”

Promotion Contenders Show Teeth
Criciúma made the statement of Matchweek by defeating Avai 2-1 (June 27) despite having only 43% possession. Their counterattacking efficiency - converting both shots on target - demonstrates why they’re dark horses for promotion. Meanwhile, Vitória maintained pressure with a clinical 2-0 win over bottom-dwellers Brasil de Pelotas.

The Relegation Dogfight Intensifies
At the other end, Volta Redonda’s loss to Goiás leaves them dangerously close to the drop zone. Their defensive fragility (conceding in 9 of last 10 matches) contrasts starkly with Paraná Clube’s newfound resilience under manager Eduardo Baptista.

Looking ahead, July promises fireworks as six teams remain within three points of top spot. My predictive model gives Vitória a 63% chance of automatic promotion if they maintain current form…but in Serie B, as we’ve seen, predictions are worth about as much as a VAR monitor in a power outage.