Brazilian Serie B Round 12: Surprises, Stalemates, and Statistical Oddities

When the Numbers Tell the Story

Another week of Brazil’s second division proved why statisticians need antacids. Let’s start with the headline act: Cuiabá’s 2-5 loss to Paysandú wasn’t just a scoreline – it was a data anomaly. My Python models spit out error codes analyzing this one. A team averaging 1.2 expected goals (xG) per match suddenly concedes five? Either Paysandú channeled 1970 Brazil or someone forgot to defend.

The Draw Specialists
Three consecutive 1-1 results (Volta Redonda-Avai, Remo-Paysandú, Amazonas-Paysandú) had me checking my monitor for stuck pixels. The xG timelines show something fascinating – all featured dramatic momentum swings between minutes 60-75. Coincidence? Maybe. Or proof that Serie B midfielders turn into marathon runners after halftime.

Defensive Disasters
Avai’s backline conceded a brutal 4.0 xG against Minas Gerais. As someone who helped design NBA tracking systems, I’d suggest their defenders wear GPS units… so fans can locate them on a map. Meanwhile, Goiás’ last-gasp 1-0 win over Nova Olímpia came from a 89th minute set piece – their 7th such goal this season. Some teams have playbooks; these guys have a GPS route to the near post.

What the Algorithms Say

My tracking models highlight two trends:

1. Late-game collapses: 63% of goals occur after minute 70, suggesting fitness issues
2. Set-piece kings: The top 3 teams (Cuiabá, Goiás, CRB) score 41% of goals from dead balls

Up next? Watch Botafogo-SP vs CRB – a clash between the league’s most accurate passers (82% completion) and its best pressing team. My money’s on… well actually, betting on Serie B requires stronger whiskey than I keep in the office.