Brazilian Serie B Round 12: Data-Driven Insights

As a London-based analyst with a soft spot for Latin American football chaos (and a closet full of obscure club jerseys), I’ve crunched the numbers on Serie B’s most unpredictable round yet. Here’s what the data reveals:

The Stalemate Epidemic
Three consecutive 1-1 draws opened the round, with Volta Redonda vs. Avaí setting the tone. Expected Goals (xG) data shows both teams underperformed by at least 0.8 xG - textbook ‘mid-table mediocrity’ as my spreadsheets politely call it.

Defensive Masterclass of the Week
Botafogo-SP’s 1-0 win over Chapecoense wasn’t pretty but statistically impressive: 18 tackles won (85% success rate) and only 0.3 xG conceded. Their left-back Rafael Santos covered 11.7km - that’s further than my last weekend walk to the pub.

Promotion Race Heating Up
Atlético Paranaense’s 2-1 comeback against Avaí moves them into the top 4. Their second-half xG of 1.9 suggests halftime team talks should come with a caffeine warning. Meanwhile, Goiás’ 2-1 victory at Minas Gerais makes them dark horses with 3 wins in 5.

Upcoming Fixtures to Watch
My model flags two critical matches:

1. Novorizontino vs. América-MG (July 12): A clash of contrasting styles - one attacks like London traffic (slow but persistent), the other defends like Buckingham Palace guards.
2. Paysandu vs. Goianiense (July 12): The Amazon derby where humidity becomes the 12th player. Hydration stats may outweigh possession percentages here.

Fun fact: The round featured more red cards (3) than goals scored in some matches. Classic Serie B efficiency.